Armed conflicts have intensified across multiple borders, according to a series of coordinated reports released on May 28, 2023, as new violence has flared in several regions and existing wars have escalated in specific ways that observers describe as significant. The reports — prepared by international organisations tracking peace and conflict, by humanitarian agencies responding to the specific consequences, and by specialist research institutions — describe a global security environment in which the number of active armed conflicts, the number of people affected by them, and the specific scale of humanitarian consequences have all been rising.

The specific indicators documented in the reports are striking. The number of active armed conflicts globally has been running at historically high levels. Battle-related deaths, civilian casualties, and specific humanitarian consequences have been rising. The number of people forcibly displaced by armed conflict has reached unprecedented levels, and the geographic scope of conflicts has been expanding in specific ways that cross traditional boundaries between distinct wars and specific regional disputes.

The Scope of Contemporary Conflict

The reports describe a specific pattern in which the nature of contemporary armed conflict differs in important ways from the conflicts of earlier periods. Contemporary conflicts are often fought in urban environments, with specific consequences for civilian populations. They frequently involve multiple parties, including state forces, non-state armed groups, and specific categories of armed actors whose status under international humanitarian law is contested. They often extend over long periods, producing protracted crises that affect generations rather than single cohorts. And they increasingly interact with specific regional and international dynamics that blur the boundaries between distinct conflicts.

The specific geographic concentrations of current armed conflicts span multiple continents. Specific conflicts in the Middle East have been ongoing for years and have produced specific consequences that continue to shape regional politics and humanitarian need. Conflicts in specific parts of Africa — including both longstanding insurgencies and newer outbreaks — have produced substantial displacement and humanitarian crises. Specific conflicts in parts of Europe and Asia have attracted substantial international attention and have produced specific geopolitical consequences that extend well beyond the immediate parties. Specific conflicts in the Americas, including specific forms of gang-related violence that produce consequences comparable to more traditional armed conflicts, have been receiving increasing analytical attention.

The specific character of current conflicts often includes transnational dimensions. Armed groups operating across borders, specific flows of weapons and fighters, specific regional alliances and proxy relationships, and specific international dimensions of particular conflicts have produced situations in which the distinction between national and international armed conflict has become harder to maintain. Specific patterns of cross-border engagement by state actors — including military support to parties within conflicts, specific deployments of forces, and specific forms of indirect engagement — have been shaping the evolution of particular conflicts in ways that observers have been documenting.

The Human Toll

The specific human toll of current armed conflicts has been substantial. Battle-related deaths — as recorded by specific conflict monitoring projects using carefully documented methodologies — have been running at levels not seen in recent decades. Civilian casualties, which account for substantial proportions of total deaths in many contemporary conflicts, have been particularly concerning. Specific patterns of harm to civilians — including specific effects of urban warfare, specific attacks on civilian infrastructure including hospitals and schools, and specific uses of particular weapons in civilian areas — have been the subject of specific documentation and specific advocacy.

Forced displacement has been a defining consequence of recent conflicts. Refugees, internally displaced people, and specific categories of people in refugee-like situations have reached record numbers. Specific pressures on host countries, on international protection arrangements, and on the specific capacities of humanitarian organisations to respond at scale have been substantial. The specific dynamics of displacement — including the specific routes people take, the specific dangers they face, and the specific options available to them — have been documented extensively in the reports released today.

Specific categories of harm that particularly affect women, children, and specific vulnerable groups have been receiving focused attention. Sexual and gender-based violence in conflict, including specific documented patterns of use of sexual violence as a weapon of war, continues to be a source of serious concern. Children in armed conflict — including specific issues related to the recruitment and use of children, attacks on schools, and the specific consequences of conflict for child development and education — have been the subject of specific monitoring frameworks. Specific issues affecting people with disabilities, older adults, and specific marginalised groups in conflict situations have been receiving increasing attention.

Humanitarian Response

The humanitarian response to current conflicts has been substantial but has struggled to keep pace with the scale of need. Major international humanitarian organisations — including the International Committee of the Red Cross and its national society partners, United Nations agencies including UNHCR, UNICEF, the World Food Programme, and the World Health Organization, and a wide range of international and local NGOs — have been operating at large scale across many of the affected contexts. Specific programmes delivering food, shelter, health care, water and sanitation, protection services, education in emergencies, and specific other categories of assistance have reached tens of millions of people.

Specific challenges in delivering humanitarian assistance in conflict contexts have been substantial. Humanitarian access — the specific ability of humanitarian actors to reach populations in need — has been constrained in specific contexts, with specific denials of access, specific attacks on humanitarian workers and facilities, and specific operational difficulties produced by the specific conditions of particular conflicts. The specific principles of humanitarian action — neutrality, impartiality, independence, and humanity — have been tested in specific contexts by the political complexities of delivering assistance in environments where multiple parties to conflict have specific interests that may be affected by humanitarian presence.

Funding for humanitarian response has been a chronic challenge. International humanitarian appeals have been consistently underfunded, with specific shortfalls producing specific consequences in terms of populations unreached and services reduced in scale. The specific gap between identified needs and available funding has been widening, and specific efforts to diversify humanitarian financing — through multi-year funding arrangements, specific pooled funds, and specific partnerships with new funding sources — have been advancing but have not closed the gap.

Protection of Civilians

The protection of civilians in armed conflict has been a specific focus of international attention and has been a central theme of the reports released today. International humanitarian law — codified in the Geneva Conventions and their Additional Protocols, in specific customary international law, and in specific treaty instruments addressing particular weapons or practices — provides the framework within which the conduct of armed conflict is to be regulated. Specific obligations of parties to armed conflict — including the principles of distinction between civilians and combatants, of proportionality in the use of force, of precautions in attack, and of specific protections for particular categories of persons and objects — are central to the civilian protection agenda.

The specific record of compliance with international humanitarian law in current conflicts has been mixed. Specific documented violations, including specific attacks on civilian populations and civilian objects, specific uses of particular weapons in civilian areas, and specific forms of harm to specific protected categories of persons, have been extensively reported by specific monitoring bodies. Accountability for specific violations has been pursued through various mechanisms, including specific national and international judicial processes, specific commissions of inquiry, and specific truth-seeking arrangements. The specific effectiveness of these accountability mechanisms has varied, and specific reforms to strengthen accountability for violations of international humanitarian law have been advancing.

Civilian protection in conflict requires specific action by multiple actors. Parties to conflict themselves bear primary responsibility for civilian protection, and specific training, specific operational protocols, and specific command structures within armed forces and armed groups shape the extent to which civilian protection obligations are implemented in practice. Third states have specific responsibilities under international humanitarian law, including obligations to respect and ensure respect for the law. International organisations, including specific UN bodies and specific regional organisations, have specific roles in monitoring, reporting, and specific protective functions. Civil society organisations, including specific human rights and humanitarian groups, have been central to the documentation and advocacy work that underpins the civilian protection agenda.

The Diplomatic Response

The diplomatic response to current conflicts has been working across multiple tracks. Peace processes for specific conflicts have been advancing in various forms, from full peace negotiations involving multiple parties to specific confidence-building measures, specific local ceasefire arrangements, and specific humanitarian-focused negotiations. The specific success of peace processes has varied widely, and specific lessons from successful and unsuccessful processes have been informing current practice.

International organisations have been engaged in specific ways across current conflicts. The United Nations Security Council has taken up specific conflict situations, with specific resolutions adopted and specific sanctions imposed in particular cases. UN peace operations — including peacekeeping missions and specific political missions — have continued to operate in specific contexts, though their specific mandates, resources, and effectiveness have varied considerably. Regional organisations have been active in specific conflicts within their respective regions, with specific mediation efforts, specific peace support operations, and specific political engagement. Specific bilateral and multilateral diplomatic initiatives have complemented the work of international organisations in specific cases.

The specific challenges facing diplomatic responses to current conflicts include the specific complexity of many contemporary wars, the specific multiplicity of actors involved, the specific transnational dimensions that complicate national-level diplomatic engagement, and the specific geopolitical tensions that have shaped the environment in which conflict diplomacy operates. Specific proposals for strengthening the tools available to international conflict resolution have been advancing, though specific political barriers to reform have been significant in many cases.

The Economic and Social Consequences

The economic consequences of current armed conflicts extend well beyond the immediate parties. Specific effects on global food and energy markets, on specific trade and investment patterns, on specific supply chains, and on the specific broader economic environment have been documented in multiple analyses. Specific populations well beyond the direct conflict zones have been affected by these consequences, including specific consumers facing higher prices, specific workers facing economic disruption, and specific communities whose livelihoods have been shaped by the broader economic effects of current wars.

Social consequences include the specific effects on populations displaced by conflict, on host communities accepting refugees, on specific diaspora communities with connections to conflict-affected areas, and on the broader social fabric of regions affected by prolonged violence. Mental health consequences of armed conflict — affecting combatants, civilians, humanitarian workers, and specific categories of affected populations — have been increasingly documented and have been receiving specific attention in both humanitarian response and longer-term recovery work.

Educational consequences have been particularly concerning. Children in conflict-affected areas often face specific disruptions to their education that can have lasting consequences for their development, their economic prospects, and their specific life trajectories. The specific framework of Education in Emergencies — including specific arrangements for maintaining and restoring educational services during and after armed conflict — has been advancing, with specific programmes providing education to children in specific affected contexts. The gap between need and provision remains substantial, and specific advocacy for expanded investment in education for children affected by conflict has been continuing.

Looking Beyond the Immediate

The reports conclude with specific reflections on what the current pattern of conflicts suggests about the longer-term trajectory. The specific combination of factors driving current conflicts — including specific geopolitical tensions, specific pressures related to resources and climate, specific political and social dynamics within affected countries, and specific patterns of international engagement — is unlikely to change rapidly, and the specific conditions that have produced current wars are likely to continue producing conflicts in the coming years.

Specific investments in conflict prevention, in peace-building, and in the specific structural conditions that support peaceful resolution of disputes have been advancing in various forms, but the specific scale of investment has been well below what analyses of need would suggest. Specific frameworks for addressing the underlying drivers of conflict — including economic inequality, political exclusion, specific identity-based tensions, and specific resource pressures — have been developing, and specific approaches to integrating conflict sensitivity into development programming have been advancing.

The specific work of reducing the incidence and severity of armed conflict is a long-term endeavour that requires sustained commitment across many actors. The specific lessons of past successes and failures — documented in specific studies of specific conflicts and peace processes — are being drawn upon to inform current practice. The specific innovations in conflict response, including specific forms of local peace-building, specific approaches to disarmament, demobilisation, and reintegration, and specific frameworks for addressing the specific consequences of conflict for particular populations, have been advancing.

What Is Being Asked

The reports include specific calls to action directed at different actors. Parties to armed conflicts are asked to comply with their obligations under international humanitarian law, to engage seriously in processes aimed at peaceful resolution, and to take specific steps to reduce harm to civilians. Third states are asked to use their specific leverage to support compliance with international humanitarian law, to contribute to peace processes, and to provide the specific resources required for humanitarian response and for peace support operations.

International organisations are asked to continue their specific work across peace and security, humanitarian response, and human rights, and to strengthen the specific capacities required to respond effectively to current and anticipated needs. Civil society — including specific human rights organisations, humanitarian actors, research institutions, and specific advocacy groups — is asked to continue its documentation and advocacy work. Private-sector actors, whose specific engagement with conflict-affected contexts has been expanding, are asked to exercise due diligence regarding the specific human rights and humanitarian implications of their activities.

Individual readers are asked for sustained attention to armed conflicts and their specific consequences. The cumulative effect of public attention shapes the political and financial environment within which responses to armed conflict are organised, and sustained engagement with issues of peace and security is an element of the broader response that cannot be delegated entirely to specialists.

A Pattern That Requires Response

The cumulative picture that emerges from today's reports is of a global security environment in which armed conflict is more prevalent, more consequential, and more interconnected than it has been for some time. The specific response required is substantial, and it spans the immediate humanitarian response to specific consequences, the diplomatic engagement with specific peace processes, the longer-term work of conflict prevention and peace-building, and the specific reforms of international frameworks that would strengthen the tools available to respond.

None of this is new in general outline. What is new — and what today's reports document in specific detail — is the specific scale and character of the current situation, and the specific evidence that existing responses are not keeping pace with the specific requirements. The reports argue that renewed commitment, at the scale the situation demands, is required across the full range of actors whose choices shape the trajectory of armed conflict and its consequences.

For the specific people affected by armed conflict — those who have been displaced, those who have lost loved ones, those living under the specific conditions of war, and those working to support them — the reports are an acknowledgement of what they are experiencing and a call for the international community to match their endurance with the specific commitment that the situation demands. Whether that commitment will be mobilised at the scale required is, in the end, the question that today's reports leave open for those who receive them to answer.

The specific work of responding to armed conflict continues, in specific places, through specific actions, by specific people. Today's reports add evidence, urgency, and specificity to the case for strengthening that work. What happens next will depend on the specific choices being made now and in the months and years ahead, in governments, in international institutions, in civil society, and in the specific communities whose fate depends on them.